Initial metrics for SmartLock.AuthResult.Unlock are coming in [1] and the success rate does not look good, at ~50% for all devices (~80% for Pixelbook [2]).
SmartLock.AuthResult.Unlock captures the success rate of reaching the unlock screen after tapping the user photo. Anecdotally, I don't believe I've ever seen this fail, which makes me suspect something is messed up with the metrics themselves.
The primary failure reasons are "Auth attempt cannot start" (this bucket name is unclear and needs to be improved), and "Unlock not allowed". I'll start by trying to track down why those two buckets are being reported so much.
My own custom Dremel queries reveal that some devices report failures far more than others, so I will probably want to manually test with one of them in order to track down this issue faster.
1) https://uma.googleplex.com/p/chrome/timeline_v2/?sid=8cdd3115a4fbe7ffd9bb5837cd3bcba0
2) https://uma.googleplex.com/p/chrome/timeline_v2/?sid=b3d4da83fc813d7cc00aee2b51f74ce1