The following revision refers to this bug:
  https://chromium.googlesource.com/chromium/src.git/+/51757db3e54d3b16cb838847c3bfef4d4fc6b8a9

commit 51757db3e54d3b16cb838847c3bfef4d4fc6b8a9
Author: Finnur Thorarinsson <finnur@chromium.org>
Date: Sat Dec 08 02:17:54 2018

Windows Native Notifications: Add more detailed error code
for display failure cases:

SHOWING_TOAST_FAILED
CREATE_TOAST_NOTIFIER_WITH_ID_FAILED

Bug: 911863
Change-Id: Ic9f4253aa33be90b8b9af392998d3da5e0f69627
Reviewed-on: https://chromium-review.googlesource.com/c/1368644
Commit-Queue: Finnur Thorarinsson <finnur@chromium.org>
Reviewed-by: Mark Pearson <mpearson@chromium.org>
Cr-Commit-Position: refs/heads/master@{#614916}
[modify] https://crrev.com/51757db3e54d3b16cb838847c3bfef4d4fc6b8a9/chrome/browser/notifications/notification_platform_bridge_win.cc
[modify] https://crrev.com/51757db3e54d3b16cb838847c3bfef4d4fc6b8a9/tools/metrics/histograms/histograms.xml

The new more detailed metrics haven't reached stable yet, but I compiled some statistics for the metric we do have (on DisplayStatus) and broke it down by Windows 10 versions. These are the success rates for DisplayStatus:

Version  Success
14393    99.68%
15063    99.56%
16299    99.62%
17134    92.40% (4% SHOWING_TOAST_FAILED, 3.5% CREATE_TOAST_NOTIFIER_WITH_ID_FAILED)
17763    99.68%

The good news is that it is pretty clear the errors are confined to just one particular Windows version. The bad news is that, of the above, the failing version has by far the biggest user base. In time, the latest version should take over and the error rate should go down.

It is probably due to another regression bug introduced by Microsoft in 17134 which was then fixed in 17763. 

We have disabled the feature for versions older than 17134 due to the memory leaks btw.